BRAZIL RISK OBSERVER

Risk Methodology

We ask what can go wrong, through which channel, who is exposed and what observable evidence would change the assessment.

• Event: the verified development and its source.
• Exposure: the assets, sectors or foreign-capital positions affected.
• Transmission: currency, rates, debt, valuation, governance, regulation or liquidity.
• Scenario: the plausible adverse outcome, including a conditional worst case when justified.
• Triggers: events and data that would make the scenario more or less likely.
• Limits: missing evidence, institutional safeguards and facts that constrain the conclusion.

Risk Watch

Risk Watch displays dated official observations: the PTAX selling rate, Ibovespa daily close, gross debt-to-GDP ratio and Selic target. Frequencies differ by source.

If a source has not published a new observation or is temporarily unavailable, the last valid value is retained with its reference date. We never invent a holiday or non-trading-day value.

Coverage is selective, not exhaustive. The absence of a warning does not mean that an asset, institution or policy is safe.