Rate-cut bets retreat: refinancing and bond-price risk remain

A Reuters poll finds 33 of 48 economists expecting the Selic to stay at 13.75% on November 4. Foreign portfolios built around cheaper financing face a test.

Source-based facts

Reuters’ survey closed November 2 with 33 economists expecting unchanged rates and 15 expecting a quarter-point cut. The report describes a shift toward a pause amid fiscal uncertainty. This is a survey of forecasts, not a decision by the Central Bank.

Observer analysis

Foreign-investor risk: if borrowing costs remain higher than assumed, leveraged developers, consumer businesses and refinancing-dependent borrowers can face weaker cash flow and profit margins. Existing long-duration fixed-rate bonds can lose market value if required yields rise relative to their purchase assumptions. For an unhedged overseas holder, currency depreciation could compound local losses. These are conditional transmission channels; the poll does not establish that those losses will occur.

What could reduce the risk

The decision is still pending, a cut remains possible and a pause may already be priced in. Higher rates can support the real and benefit floating-rate income. Exposure depends on entry price, duration, leverage, currency hedging and the actual Copom communication.

Original source

Reuters · Gabriel Burin / UOL
PESQUISA-BC deve manter Selic em 13,75% em uma pausa após a reeleição de Lula ↗
Source: 2 November 2026, 11:46 BRT · Copom decision due 4 November